There was plenty of buzz around Germany’s Volocopter providing air-taxi services during the recent Paris Olympics. Instead the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) developer had to make do with a series of demonstration flights rather than commercial operations using its VoloCity craft.

The setback is not surprising as eVTOL makers and vertiport operators are still constrained by a lack of robust and coordinated rules and regulations to ensure the safety of this new form of air transport.

Embraer-backed eVTOL producer Eve recently told AirportIR that it expects to receive accreditation from Brazil’s civil aviation authority ANAC in 2026, with entry into service the same year.

This is in line with predictions from a new report by management consultancy Bain & Company. It expects commercial air taxi services to commence operations in the next two or three years, but that reaching scale would not happen until the mid-2030s (see chart below).

By then, the report states that small eVTOLs will “likely transport passengers and cargo between city centers and local airports, across busy regions, and in remote areas.” But there are many hurdles to come if companies want to achieve profitability.

To begin with, the timescale for mass usage of eVTOLs can be measured in decades although, from 2030, the number of aircraft in the market will grow rapidly. Initially—as with most new forms of transport—the price premium for eVTOL flights compared with ground transportation will limit their use.

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Business and mid- to high-income individuals will get first dibs, as well as services like cargo for hard-to-reach locations or when expedited deliveries are needed. However, as the market evolves, Bain says that growth of the customer base will then be a factor of operators’ willingness to offer “an acceptable price for faster travel times.”

The management consultancy stated: “Operators also will need to ensure flights are integrated into efficient end-to-end transport solutions, including seamless travel from starting location to vertiports to ensure customers don’t spend more time getting to and from transport hubs than the time they save by flying.” There is also the additional complication of autonomous road vehicles becoming a competitor transport mode by the mid-2030s.

The benefits of this new travel mode are potentially lower costs, reduced emissions, and improved safety. The report suggests that the global eVOTL market could see a fleet of 12,000 aircraft by 2035 and 45,000 by 2040, which will create its own momentum.

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Mattia Celli, a Rome-based partner at Bain’s Advanced Manufacturing & Services practice, commented: “eVTOLs bring an array of investment opportunities. However, companies will face multiple challenges growing these businesses.”

One of them will be the price premium for eVTOL flights compared with ground transportation. While Bain predicts that these journeys will cost less per mile than taking a helicopter, they will be more than double regular car services like ride-hailing or even new services like robo-taxis (see chart above).

The development of a strong market for advanced air mobility will also depend on factors like safety, battery technology, new air traffic regulations, infrastructure, and aircraft certification and performance, all of which will underpin consumer confidence in using these services.

Market growth will also depend on efficient eVTOL routes and a dense network of landing and take-off vertiports that are convenient for passengers. These routes will need to be embedded in the wider multimodal transportation systems of the cities and countries they are in.

The cost of the product is another factor. The aircraft acquisition price, maintenance expenses, and other operating costs will determine uptake by operators. An eVTOL that seats four or five passengers (excluding multi-rotor aircraft) is expected to cost between US$3 million and US$6 million and have an economic life of about 10 years, according to Bain.

“To be commercially viable, operators will need to use the aircraft for at least 1,000 flight hours a year,” said the consultancy. It expects aircraft system depreciation to represent the largest cost per eVTOL flight hour.

“Future winners will forge a business model well adapted to the constraints of the emerging market and will excel at making the new mode of travel convenient and cost-efficient,” concluded Bain.

Read the full report here.