The United States' international air traffic market fully recovered from the pandemic in 2024, with travel 6% higher than in 2019. Looking at data from the first five months of this year (see chart below), we can see that the volume gained last year was sustained; however, growth has cooled down to just 1% year-on-year.

Drilling down further, it becomes clear that mainly U.S. citizens have contributed to the growth, while foreigners are holding off. The share of Americans on flights to and from the U.S. rose to around 56% in recent years, from 48% in 2019 (see lower chart below).

This year, the trend is similar, with a 2% decline in foreigners entering/leaving the country, and a 3.5% growth of U.S. citizens. This has led to unfilled capacity and airlines lowering air fares, resulting in July 4^th air fares to Europe and Asia down 13% compared to the year before. Overall, foreign travelers are 10% down while U.S. citizens are up by a stunning 23% in the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2019.

A Regional Perspective

Americans are important to surrounding countries that have a large economic dependency on tourism. Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Colombia, and Costa Rica have all seen 2024 U.S. traffic volumes at around 30% or more above 2019. However, all of these countries are showing a mild decline in the first quarter of this year (see chart below), with Colombia at 10% fewer passengers than last year.

Europe shows varying performance. While major markets like the U.K., Germany, and France are all still below 2019 levels, Spain, Italy, and Greece have seen growth of over 20% between 2019 and 2024. Overall, Europeans traveling to the U.S. are down by 15% versus 2019, while U.S. citizens coming the other way are up by 20%.

A similar pattern is seen across all markets, with U.S. citizens driving growth—banking on a strong Dollar and a thriving economy.

Asia is a different story altogether. Due to continued capacity reductions between the U.S. and China, impacts from airspace restrictions over Russia, and consequential airline shifts to other regions, this market is still 17% down. Although here, too, U.S. outbound volume has actually grown, while foreigners are still a third below pre-pandemic levels.

The top three U.S. airlines have all shown significantly higher international passenger volumes in 2024. While United and Delta are still holding up in 2025, American Airlines shows a decline. Among the smaller U.S. airlines, similar growth can be seen in 2024, however, they all show declines this year (see charts above).

Consequences for Europe and Asia

In summary, it is the LATAM & Caribbean market that has especially benefited from outbound American travel. In Europe, U.S. citizens ensured that the market just about recovered and countering the lack of visitors to the U.S. from traditional large European markets. Meanwhile, Asia remains well behind due to geopolitical issues, although even there, it is Americans who are keeping the market alive.

It is clear that U.S. citizens have buoyed passenger volumes and driven growth to destinations in the Caribbean, Latin America, and Europe, while inbound travelers are still below pre-pandemic levels in all markets.

However, fortunes are changing; the U.S. dollar is weakening, and economic growth is projected to be lower. This will impact American demand for leisure, with a shift in focus to cheaper international markets such as South America or even domestically.

Airlines will act accordingly and direct their capacity towards higher-yielding markets. Therefore, U.S.–Caribbean and U.S.–Latin America capacity is likely to hold up, together with domestic travel, while European and Asian capacity might take a hit in the short term.