Exactly one year ago, in December 2023, a new greenfield airport in Tulum (TQO) was opened. The airport has already exceeded an initial forecast of 700,000 passengers in the first year and is now heading towards almost double that. By the end of November, the airport had transported 1.1 million passengers.

This success has come despite Mexican aviation's bumpy ride. After an initial surge in post-pandemic traffic, 2024 proved difficult mainly due to airline capacity issues from both Mexican and American airlines.

TQO is only 130km from Cancun (CUN), the traditional hub of the Riviera Maya, which had nearly 33 million passengers in 2023. This article examines the interaction between the two airports to see if it impacts CUN’s operation.

Tulum Airport’s Current Situation

The airport transports just under 50,000 domestic passengers per month using 60 weekly departures. Currently, four domestic destinations are served (see chart below), with two-thirds of flights to Mexico City (all via the new Felipe Ángeles International Airport (NLU), the former Santa Lucia airbase). The flights are operated by Aeromexico, VivaAerobus, and Mexicana de Aviacion.

In addition, the airport has served 11 international routes, of which eight are in the U.S. (in addition to Panama, Toronto, and Montreal). In the peak summer months, there were over 70 weekly departures. International flights started in March and have since made up the majority of the market in terms of passengers at the airport (see chart below). Meanwhile, domestic routes, frequencies, and passengers appear relatively stable throughout the year.

Comparison with Cancun

When looking at the Riviera Maya market overall, we can see that TQO has a share of around 6% including CUN, and does not offer routes that are not already operated from the bigger gateway.

As the chart below shows, Cancun has had a tough 2024 since March, with the number of flights declining compared to 2023. Even when adding the TQO flights, the total combined volume is still below last year, with October showing the airport´s traffic down by 15% year-over-year.

A range of issues are at play in line with an overall decline in passenger traffic in Mexico, which stood at 18% for the domestic market. The factors include:

• Ongoing construction of the Maya Train project—Aimed at boosting connectivity across southeastern Mexico, the project has caused road traffic disruptions and delays for tourists. Frequent power outages linked to the Federal Electricity Commission have added to a negative sentiment for tourism.
• Restrictive visa policies—Targeting nationals from countries like Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru these policies have reduced visitor numbers from these markets which are traditionally key contributors to Mexico's tourism industry.
• Lack of tourism promotion—Tourism experts have criticized a lack of robust international marketing campaigns to promote Mexico’s diverse travel offerings. Other global destinations such as Colombia and Ecuador have been more successful.
• Engine faults—Mandatory inspections of Pratt & Whitney engines, which power many Airbus A320 aircraft used by low-cost carriers Viva Aerobus and Volaris have led to the suspension of several routes. These airlines, which handle a large portion of domestic and regional traffic, have been forced to scale back capacity as a result.

These factors explain the overall decline in traffic in the region. It appears that both international and domestic airlines wanted to secure routes to the new Tulum airport in order to establish market share. This most probably added to the decline of Cancun this year; airlines focussed their limited capacity on TQO, while reducing frequencies at the bigger gateway.

The scale of Tulum is, however, too small to have a significant impact on Cancun just yet. There are also other external factors that have had a bigger impact on the performance of the main Mayan airport this year.

In 2025, Tulum will likely also see some impact from the overall decline of demand in the Riviera Maya as both American Airlines and United are cutting routes. On the other hand, new routes keep being added by other airlines, such as Bogotá by Avianca, and a direct connection to Europe from Frankfurt.