As the aviation industry eases into 2026, airlines association IATA has mapped out the risks that could define the year. Back in January 2025, air transport was grappling with multiple headwinds, and thrown into the mix appeared the threat of tariffs and the potential of retaliation.

Yet, according to the global body, airlines managed to generate a record net profit of USD39.5 billion in the end. But Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President, Sustainability & Chief Economist, put that in context: “In one year, a single oil company can make as much profit as our whole airline industry does.”

Looking at net margins, the picture remains fragile. They are expected to be 3.9% in 2026, making the airline industry one of the lowest-margin industries, having never seen a net profit margin above 5%.

Owens Thomsen has made a risk assessment for the year ahead that is broken down into five areas that may be important for planning and decision-making across the entire aviation ecosystem.

1. Policy Fragmentation

The post-war multilateral system has weakened, most visibly in international trade. ‘Me-first’ policies are being enacted with little concern for their impact on supply chains or single industries such as air transport. “International institutions are being sidestepped, threatening to undo the International Civil Aviation Organization’s 80 years of global harmonization, said Owens Thomsen, adding that different frameworks are now competing to determine how to address CO₂ emissions from air transport.

2. Supply Chain Disruptions

A record-high backlog of aircraft orders persists. While it is easing off, the mismatch between airline requirements and production is not expected to level out before 2031-2034. This negatively caps growth in the industry, although it can protect yields as aircraft load factors reach higher levels. “More dramatically, the situation has halted progress in improving fuel efficiency across the global fleet and slows the industry’s decarbonization efforts,” she said.

3. Disruptions Related to Climate Change

Extreme weather and commodity price swings can affect agriculture, infrastructure, global trade, and investment flows. Energy transition for airlines pursuing net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 requires stable policies and reliable financing. The reduced coordinated commitment to climate issues across the world will undoubtedly slow progress on all these fronts, argues Owens Thomsen.

Associated risks include greater food and water insecurity, and therefore increased migration. The decision by nations to welcome—or not welcome—migrants will put pressure on borders and support systems, impacting international air passengers. Other political factors have already hit travel: in the case of the U.S., international visitors are expected to have fallen from 72.4 million in 2024 to 67.9 million in 2025—a 6.3% decline and the first drop since 2020.

4. Cyber Threats and Artificial Intelligence

Cyber threats are growing, and there is a convergence of risks and vulnerabilities as artificial intelligence (AI) enhances attackers’ capabilities. “Geopolitical instability provides a fertile breeding ground, and digital dependence is exposing supply chains and organizations to greater risks,” notes Owens Thomsen. Aviation relies on critical infrastructure, thus making the global air transport network particularly exposed.

5. Macro-Economic Outlook

IATA’s Chief Economist was more positive on macro trends. “The risk of a severe economic slowdown in 2026 seems limited unless we have underestimated the potential combined effect of the above converging risks and vulnerabilities,” she said, “or because of unforeseen events. Nevertheless, this is not a particularly growth-friendly environment, and global GDP growth is unlikely to accelerate. Moreover, given this risk convergence, the margin to maneuver is reduced, which makes policy mistakes more likely.”

[Read the full 2026 risk assessment from IATA here.]