The intra-European market made a strong recovery in 2022 led by low-cost carriers. However, 2023 and 2024 were the years when intercontinental traffic bounced back.

In 2023, the total market recovered to just under 2019 levels (-3%), and by the beginning of 2024 annual growth of 12% was being recorded to bring it 4% above pre-pandemic volumes.

As can be seen below, the long-term trend for the European Union’s (EU’s) intercontinental traffic rapidly took off in the latter half of the last decade, growing by nearly 40% from 2014 to 2019. At the time, the Asia-Europe traffic flow grew rapidly.

While Africa-Europe traffic struggled until 2016, it has expanded since then and, unlike with Asia, it appears the trend has continued post-pandemic. The Africa-EU market has made the largest recovery of all regions, and in 2023 it was already 9% ahead of 2019. Elsewhere, North American traffic was still slightly below, and Asian traffic was well below 2019.

There are, however, large differences per region as seen below. East Asia, for example, which includes Japan, China, and Korea, is still well below 2019. This can partially be explained by the closure of Russian airspace to many airlines. A strong rebound was seen at the start of 2024, mainly coming from China.

Southeast Asia remains behind in 2024 as well, and could indicate a shift in preference of Europeans for tourism destinations to places like South America or North Africa. It probably also reflects Southeast Asian tourists’ choices to travel more within Asia.

Assessing Africa’s Growth

North Africa represents around 75% of EU-African traffic and shows the strongest recovery. This includes countries such as Morocco, Egypt, and Tunisia. West and East Africa are also showing signs of a solid revival, while Central and Southern Africa remain behind, the latter by 20%. These are also the smallest markets representing a share of less than 10%.

Europe is working hard to expand its influence in Africa, particularly to compete with China which has extensive involvement on the continent. The economic ties between Europe and Africa are expected to deepen in the coming years, driven by mutual interests in trade, demography, and sustainable development.

Africa’s growing young population and rapid urbanization present substantial opportunities for European investment, for example in industries that could be relocated from Asia. The EU is also committed to supporting Africa’s transition to renewable energy, aligning with the European Green Deal and climate goals.

To support ever-closer relations, it is important to provide seamless travel connections between the continents, and it appears that has started to happen. Air traffic between North Africa and Europe has accelerated over recent years.

A primary driver remains tourism, with North African destinations like Morocco, Egypt, and Tunisia increasingly popular among European tourists due to affordability, and proximity to Europe. European low-cost carriers such as Ryanair and EasyJet have expanded services to North African cities, increasing accessibility and fuelling demand.

Moreover, there is a substantial diaspora from North African countries in Europe, particularly in France and Spain, which leads to significant travel demand for family visits which has now become easier with cheaper flights. Political stabilization in some North African countries has further encouraged tourism and investment.

For East Africa, leading carriers like Ethiopian Airlines and Kenya Airways have significantly expanded. Ethiopian Airlines, in particular, has strong growth plans, aiming to nearly double its fleet, expand its routes, and increase passenger capacity to 60 million annually by 2035. Its hub, Addis Ababa, connects the whole of Africa, adding more destinations to Europe with just a single stop.

While intercontinental travel from Europe is expected to grow in all directions, the flow between Europe and Africa has the largest growth potential. The trend is already in motion and airport infrastructure in Africa will need to keep up with this development.

That makes Africa a hot market to watch and explore for operators, investors, and constructors in the industry.