The conflict in the Middle East—that began on February 28 with the joint U.S.-Israel bombing of Iran, resulting in retaliatory strikes across the region—has created turmoil, with ripple effects across global aviation.

Missile strikes on key Gulf states whose airports are major global connecting hubs have resulted in widespread airspace closures, with only partial reopenings so far. Two narrow air corridors now connect Europe to Asia, creating bottlenecks—with flight times and fuel burn increasing as a result. Flight corridors were already significantly reduced in recent years due to the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict, so pressures have ramped up.

While estimates vary, the airports in Dubai (DXB), Doha (DOH), and Abu Dhabi (AUH) are responsible for around 12–14% of the world’s connecting passengers. They punch above their weight because their business models are built on east-west—and to a lesser degree north-south—transfer traffic.

Consultancy Midas Aviation said: “The scale of the disruption in the Middle East cannot be underestimated. About 38,700 flights were scheduled to depart from the region between February 28 and March 10, with over 8.1 million seats secured.” Very few of those got off the ground, and thousands of passengers remain stranded.

According to the company, in December 2025, an estimated 2.1 million passengers travelled through the Middle East to and from Europe to points in Asia, Australasia, and Africa: the equivalent of 69,000 a day. Midas Aviation Co-founder John Grant said: “Airlines such as Qatar Airways, over 90% of whose passengers connect onwards, will need to rebuild whole networks carefully rather than selective routes or country markets.”

Impact on Inbound Arrivals

Passengers are rerouting via other hubs, notably Istanbul in Türkiye, but airfares have soared, and traffic numbers will almost certainly fall in March as sentiment weakens and forward bookings fall. It is difficult to gauge the precise impact of the disruption without knowing when the crisis will end, however, Oxford Economics, last week, released a research briefing through its Tourism Economics arm.

The analyst said: “We estimate inbound arrivals to the Middle East could decline 11-27% year-over-year in 2026 as a result of the conflict, compared to our December forecast that projected 13% growth (see chart below). In absolute terms, this would mean a range of 23-38 million fewer international visitors compared to our baseline/previous forecast. This includes expected lingering sentiment impacts beyond the immediate conflict period.”

While the 27% decline is based on a protracted-war scenario (of two months), even the 11% early-resolution scenario will be detrimental to airports in the region. Worst affected will be Iran and Israel, followed by the GCC countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Among these six, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait are expected to see the biggest declines according to Tourism Economics.

On a positive note, Linus Benjamin Bauer, Founder at aviation consultancy BAA & Partners, said: “Leisure-heavy destinations in conflict-adjacent markets are likely to see temporary softness in arrivals as travel advisories tighten. But we should separate noise from structure. The networks of the Gulf’s major carriers—Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad—are transfer-driven, and transit flows are materially less sensitive to localized geopolitical tension than point-to-point leisure demand.”

He added: “Past regional escalations have caused booking slowdowns and schedule adjustments, but not collapse. Demand typically rebounds once stability returns. At present, the base case is disruption. Middle East aviation has built two decades of resilience: scale, infrastructure quality, financial backing, and geographic positioning. That structural foundation remains intact. The sector is entering a period of volatility, but volatility is not the same as structural erosion.”