Scandinavia lost over 1.2 million departing airline seats in 2024 compared to pre-crisis levels according to a new report from airline, SAS. This is a direct consequence of closed airspace over Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, broader geopolitical instability in Asia and the Middle East has also contributed.

The report, written by Thomas Thessen, Chief Analyst at SAS is the first edition of a new series of publications from the airline called SAS Aviation Insight. It outlines how airspace restrictions are disproportionately impacting European carriers, with Western airlines most impacted versus those that can still fly over Russia, for example Chinese carriers.

Thessen said in the report: “Routes that once connected Scandinavia efficiently to Asia have become significantly longer and more expensive to operate. Following the closure of Russian airspace, flying routes such as Copenhagen–Shanghai would now involve up to two extra hours of flight time each way.”

Such a big increase in travel time (of almost 20%) is not just inconvenient for travelers, it also leads to higher fuel consumption, reduces aircraft and crew efficiency, raises operating costs, and decreases cargo payloads. These factors combined have undermined the competitiveness of European carriers, claims SAS.

Airports, too, have suffered. When Finnish airports group, Finavia, released its 2024 annual results at the end of March, it acknowledged that its result for the financial year, which hinges on the performance of Helsinki Airport (HEL), was negative “mainly due to the continued closure of Russian airspace.” The group saw a loss of EUR4.4 million (USD5 million), though this was a substantial improvement on the loss in 2023.

Asian Traffic Remains Subdued

Finavia CEO Kimmo Mäki, commented: “The number of passengers at Helsinki Airport was approximately 74.6% of 2019, which is lower than the average for other key European airports. The share of Asian traffic remained low due to the closure of Russian airspace and the flight routes being longer than before.”

This had had a direct impact on international passenger volumes at HEL, with transfer passengers now only representing 31% of the total number at the airport last year, down from close to 40% in 2019.

Mads Brandstrup Nielsen, Senior Vice President Public Affairs at SAS, said: “As long as Russian airspace remains closed, this imbalance will persist. While we remain committed to connecting Scandinavia to Asia, the industry needs a level playing field to ensure long-term sustainability, fair competition, and reliable connectivity.” 

For SAS, the effects of closed Russian airspace are visible in both route networks and passenger flows. SAS has confirmed it will not operate direct flights to China in 2025, while Chinese carriers have increased capacity on the same routes. Hainan Airlines, for example, restarted direct flights from Beijing to Oslo at the end of March, offering the fastest connection between the two cities.

Despite the challenges, SAS is set to launch a new route to Seoul, South Korea in September 2025 which the airline says should “remain competitive even under current overflight restrictions, as all airlines face similar operating conditions on this route.”

Impacts on Cargo and Tourism

The SAS report also examines the disruption to air cargo. Longer flight routes have reduced cargo capacity and efficiency, affecting trade between Europe and Asia due to delays and higher shipping costs.

As for Scandinavian tourism and business travel, both have declined, leading to drops in revenue for local economies with a shift toward virtual meetings, claims SAS. The airline has been exploring alternative routes and partnerships to mitigate the impact of closed airspace.

You can read the full report here.