In a matter of weeks after Donald Trump’s January inauguration as the 47th President of the United States, he has repeatedly referred to Canada as America’s 51st state, amusing some and angering others. A tariff regime has also come in that seems to have unified Canadians’ zeal to steer away from American products, and there is now data showing that air travel is being impacted.

Aviation analyst OAG said that based on a weekly look at scheduling between Canada and the U.S. there had been little change. But in recent weeks, the company has noted a downward trend in airline capacity and “a sharp decline in forward bookings.” 

Capacity between Canada and the U.S. has been reduced through to October 2025, with the most significant cuts occurring during the peak travel months of July and August. More alarmingly, passenger bookings on Canada–U.S. routes are currently down by an astonishing +70% compared to the same period last year.

From April to October, seat capacity is down every month, peaking at 3.5% in July and August and tapering off to 1.2% by October (see chart below). In a blog post today, OAG’s chief analyst, John  Grant, said: “Comparing the total number of scheduled one-way seats between the two countries filed on 3rd March and those filed on 24th March, over 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines operating between the two countries through to the end of October.”

March Bookings are More than 70% Down

Meanwhile, in terms of forward bookings made in March this year for the summer, versus March last year, there are declines of more than 70% (see chart below). “For scheduled airlines operating between the United States and Canada, any fall in consumer confidence and subsequent changes to planned travel are a concern, especially in such a large market and when taking place at such short notice,” said Grant.

He added: “Unfortunately, the law of unintended consequences is again impacting the airline industry in an already softening market. For those that are still planning to travel, some airlines may be offering particularly cheap airfares over the next few months as they seek to stimulate demand.”

Another casualty could be the so-called ‘snowbird’ market; Canadians traveling to warmer climes in the U.S. to escape their harsh northern winters. “This market could be badly impacted next year if the situation doesn’t improve quickly,” Grant said. However, it might not given the tough stand that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has taken, describing the U.S. under Trump as “a country we can no longer trust” and encouraging Canadians to resist “with their wallets.”

According to OAG, Canadian low-cost carrier WestJet, has been pre-emptive. Since the beginning of March, the airline has added an additional 114 flights to Europe, actively placing capacity outside of the United States. Dublin and Edinburgh are the two airports that are benefiting the most from these capacity shifts.

Europeans—a $155 billion traveler market for the U.S. in 2023—are also canceling trips to the U.S. Though it is early days, February data from the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) show that non-U.S. air arrivals from foreign countries were down by 4.8% to 4.12 million versus February 2024.