Following last week’s review of post-COVID regional growth markets in the Americas, we look at the rest of the world, starting with Asia Pacific.

Asia Pacific

The largest region took the longest to recover, as in 2023 traffic was still 17% below 2019 volumes. In 2023, year-over-year growth reached 74%, and hit nearly 17% in 2024, driving passenger volumes slightly above 2019.

Looking at country markets, it was domestic growth mainly in China (+20% vs 2019) and India (+11%) that have been the key drivers behind the recovery. Chinese travelers previously flying to Europe and the United States have now discovered the potential of domestic tourism. Meanwhile, India is quickly ramping up airline capacity, banking on economic growth and a bigger middle-class.

The international markets are still behind, however. In 2023, these stood only at 70% of the pre-pandemic level. China was the world's largest outbound travel market before COVID19. Even after reopening, factors such as visa restrictions, limited flight availability, and economic concerns have slowed Chinese travelers’ return to international travel. The recovery of international routes and capacity continues but is expected to take some time to fully recover due to ongoing overflight issues to Europe and the U.S., as well as Chinese traveling more in their domestic market.

Europe

In 2024, passenger traffic increased by 7.4% in Europe, with the southern and the eastern parts of the continent chiefly driving the recovery. Southern Europe has benefited from tourism demand and some replacement of long-haul to short-haul destinations. Eastern Europe, on the other hand, has been catching up and saw a large expansion on low-cost airline capacity, amid further integration in the European Union, and strong economic growth.

Among the largest aviation markets, some were well above their pre-pandemic levels, for example Türkiye (+23.1%), Italy (+17.0%) and Spain (+13.0%). Key mature markets were lackluster such as the United Kingdom (-0.1%), France (-3.0%), while Germany remained extremely weak at -16.6%.

Some factors causing the relatively flaccid recovery overall are geopolitical issues such as the war in Ukraine and resulting traffic reductions in both Ukraine and Russia, as well as overflight restrictions to Asia. Weaker economic development in Germany, France and the U.K. further dampened growth overall.

Middle East

This region had the second highest growth compared to 2019 (see chart above). This was driven by significant investments in the industry. Saudi Arabia, for example, has opened its borders and promoted tourism, as well as expanded airline capacity, to reach 128 million passengers, 24% above 2019. The UAE, with its hubs in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, carried 15% more passengers than in 2019.

Low-cost carriers (LCCs) have been growing strongly in the Middle East, and FlyDubai, as one example, is now a major player. Having started in 2017, the airline is already carrying over 15 million passengers annually. Air Arabia and Flynas are other significant LCCs with strong growth plans.

Africa

This is the smallest region but has, nonetheless, shown strong growth. North Africa has benefited from European demand in recent years due to a growing tourism industry. Destinations like Morocco, Egypt, and Tunisia have become increasingly popular with European tourists due to affordability and proximity. Low-cost airlines have significantly expanded their networks accordingly.

In East Africa, leading carriers like Ethiopian Airlines and Kenya Airways have significantly expanded. They have grown their fleets and increased their hub operations for the whole continent, facilitating the recovery.

Airline capacity from Asia is also on the rise, as a result of the growing interest of China, and others, in the continent. This interest has also led to continuous infrastructure improvements and economic growth.

Conclusion

It appears that regions with the most robust economic performance—in combination with tourism expansion, LCC capacity growth, and domestic market development—have made the strongest recovery in the last years.

The U.S. and South America air markets, in particular, have benefited from these circumstances and will likely continue to do so in the short term. The Chinese and Indian domestic markets will likely see similar growth.

On the other hand, airports and countries with a high share of international travel, long-haul routes, heavy reliance on a hub airline and affected by political tensions have been the most sluggish to recover in the past few years. Europe’s traditional hubs are examples in this category.